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JIM WALKER AND TAIWAN
 

In the August 2001 issue of INSIDER "Scotland's National Business Magazine", the leader of the Scottish National Farmers Union, Jim Walker, is quoted as saying, "I read and digested all this stuff and found in Taiwan they had an outbreak the same as ours with the same strain in 1997, and after killing 3.7 million animals, they decided to vaccinate the rest and four years later are still fighting the same outbreak."

We asked Bryn Wayt, FMD Researcher, to comment and he provided the following material:

Ref : http://www.usaha.org/reports/taiwanfmd.html

Ref : http://niah.naro.affrc.go.jp/disease/diseaseindex-e.html

Ref : http://niah.naro.affrc.go.jp/disease/FMD/map.html

Before I start, I have a lot of respect for Jim Walker for how he is a self made man, but there has been a dreadful sacrifice made for his deliverance from FMD that outweighs his gain, not only for himself, but the majority of Scottish farmers too. The UK taxpayer has had to suffer horrendous dips into the public purse it is a Pyrrhic victory.

Whilst Jim Walker may have studied the Taiwan FMD I don't think he told the whole story to his members of why vaccination apparently failed.

Here's your starter for 10 according to the report published at the second link listed above "The vaccines came too late to protect the pigs in eastern side of Taiwan". Pigs are 60% of what we are talking about here!

The island is two-thirds mountains and the other third has the highest density of pig farms in the world! The question of the Taiwan FMD is complex, because for a start their bio-security leaves a lot to be desired, so it is hardly any wonder vaccination allegedly did not work.

QUOTE

Because of the high concentration of hogs in Taiwan, hog waste and environmental pollution have been a problem. Water quality regulations have been adopted in recent years and efforts have been made to implement on-farm manure treatment. By 1993, 86 percent of farms had implemented manure treatment regimens. A controversial plan prepared in 1991 called for the end of pork exports in order to reduce the size of the hog herd to better match environmental carrying capacity. This plan was not enacted.

UNQUOTE

Here is more of the problem :

"Pork is the preferred meat in Taiwan and accounts for approximately 60 percent of total meat consumption. Per capita consumption was 37 kg in 1991. Taiwanese consumers prefer fresh pork, so hogs for domestic consumption are typically slaughtered at night and sold in wet markets the following day.

Prior to the outbreak, there were approximately 20 processing plants providing meat for the domestic market. Hogs move from the farm to slaughter via auction markets. In the auction markets, hogs are sold individually. The auctions run on a daily basis with a relatively small daily volume of sales "

The point here is these infected pigs were going all over the place. Vaccine could not "ring fence" them. And as the experts of the day admitted, it came too late. So you can't say IT was a failure. To have this as your "ace" card against vaccination is a little underhand.

"The Taiwanese government conducted a survey in July showing a total of 21,891 swine farms nationwide -- down 14 percent from the 25,357 reported in November 1996. In addition, the survey indicated a total of 8,533,476 pigs on these farms -- down 20 percent from November 1996 (10,698,366 pigs).

A standing herd of 7 million pigs is seen as sufficient to meet the needs of the domestic market, whereas numbers in excess of 7 million are likely to put downward pressure on prices. Production estimates for 1997 suggest an annual hog slaughter of 11.7 million head "

The point here is there were a saturation of pigs in a tiny area, relative to the island geography, and again not enough room for "ring vaccination".

"The Taiwanese government's goal is to have no additional FMD outbreaks from July 1997 through June 1998. Taiwan then hopes to reach FMD-free-with-immunization status by June 2000. From July 2000 to June 2001, Taiwan intends to eradicate FMD and reach FMD-free-without-immunization status. " Well that's the wish list!!!

Now just to dwell on bio-security again, look at the state of the place! Jim did not cover any of this, he just said vaccination did not work.

The best way to win a war is to kill all the soldiers on the opposite side - whether they are carrying arms or not. Hence the desperation to slaughter every cloven hoof animal near his borders! Slaughter will certainly kill off FMD. You kill the lot. You kill FMD.

In the INSIDER article he said, "The whole of Scottish farming has a lot to thank particularly the farmers of Dumfries and Galloway for, because their sacrifice has saved millions of other animals in other parts of the country". Too right there were sacrifices made; but how many more could have been saved by vaccination?

Ref : http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/indexgeo.html

Environment - current issues: air pollution; water pollution from industrial emissions, raw sewage; contamination of drinking water supplies; trade in endangered species; low-level radioactive waste disposal.

Environment - international agreements:
party to: none of the selected agreements
signed, but not ratified: none of the selected agreements.

Agriculture contributes 3% to GDP, down from 35% in 1952.

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To understand the whole thing about Taiwan, readers must just study a report or two note the distinct lack of "cattle". I will highlight in RED important points as I see it...

REF : http://www.usaha.org/reports/taiwanfmd.html

United States Animal Health Association

1997 Committee Reports--Committee on Epizootic Attack

Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Taiwan--1997 Overview


Terrance M. Wilson and Carol Tuszynski
Emergency Programs and CEAH: VS-APHIS-USDA

Introduction

Index case: On Friday, March 14, 1997, a hog farmer near the port city of Hsinchu in the Prefecture of Hsinchu notified his local Livestock Disease Control Center (LDCC) that he had a sow in a farrowing crate that had vesicular lesions on the feet and snout. Claws had also sloughed. This was a midsized farm of approximately 2,000 hogs and the sow was in the middle of the farrowing house. The farm was operated by the farmer and his wife and no animals had been introduced onto the farm in the last month. No other people, other than the farmer and his wife, had entered the farrowing house in the past several weeks. The management was considered to be good, but sparrows did fly in and out of the animal buildings. The morbidity was very high and the mortality in young stock was also very high, nearing 100 percent.

Clinical Disease

The incubation period was short and appeared to be approximately 1-4 days. Only swine were affected. The disease was characterized by vesicles on the feet, snout, teats and on the tongue. Vesicles were commonly observed on the snout, and it was not uncommon to examine several hundred pigs from several pens and to observe fluid-filled vesicles on the snouts. The vesicular fluid was clear to slightly cloudy. Vesicles were commonly observed on the teats. Many of the vesicles on the feet had ruptured, leaving raw, hemorrhagic, ulcerated lesions around the coronary band, between the claws and on the soles. Sloughed claws were very common as were abortions.

Morbidity was very high, often reaching 100 percent, and mortality in piglets was, in some cases, 100 percent. The neonatal mortality was commonly associated with acute myocarditis, malnutrition and related to other undiagnosed unthrifty conditions in neonates. Adults very quickly became emaciated as their feet were so sore they would not move to eat and drink.

Laboratory

Specimens were collected from the index farm on March 14, 1997, and sent to the Taiwan Provincial Research Institute for Animal Health (TRIAH) in Tansui, Taiwan. Laboratory work-up was completed over the weekend and all other swine diseases were excluded. The FMD diagnostic kit was opened and on March 19, a diagnosis of FMD was tentatively confirmed as type O1 and Asia 1.

OIE was notified of the outbreak on March 20, 1997. Samples from Taiwan were sent to the OIE/FAO World Reference Laboratory (WRL) for FMD, Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright, UK, for further evaluation. Employing the indirect ELISA and cell culture techniques, the WRL identified FMD type O.

To determine if the Taiwan strain was naturally adapted to swine, various experiments were initiated at the WRL. Experimental pigs inoculated with the Taiwan FMD isolate became ill with generalized FMD. Four normal pigs and four normal cattle were placed in contact with the FMD pigs for 2 hours. The contact-exposed pigs developed generalized FMD. The contact exposed-cattle remained normal. Further animal studies at the WRL indicated that the Taiwan FMD isolates were naturally adapted to pigs and are considered porcinophilic strains of FMD.

Epidemiology

FMD was previously diagnosed in Taiwan in 1913-1914 and again in 1924-1929. In 1997, the FMD virus may have entered Taiwan in several ways; however, the exact mode of entry remains unknown. This information maybe become available after exhaustive epidemiological studies. The disease may have entered Taiwan in several ways:

(1) smuggling of live pigs
(2) smuggling of pig meat products
(3) legal importation of live pigs
(4) legal importation of pig meat products
(5) smuggling of animal biologics
(6) legal importation of animal biologics
(7) legal and illegal movement of people
(8) intentional

Simultaneously as the laboratory diagnosis was being made on the index farm in Hsinchu Prefecture, clinical cases of an FMD-like disease were being made on hog farms in Tainan and Pingtung Prefectures approximately 200-300 kms south of the index farm. Many, therefore, suggest that FMD was present in Taiwan long before the official date of March 20, 1997. At present, however, there is no scientific information available to us to support that hypothesis. The index farm was also located near a port city that was well know for the smuggling of pigs, especially the black skinned pigs, which are highly valued by many local markets. The index farm was also located near legal and illegal slaughter houses.

On March 17, FMD was clinically diagnosed on a second hog farm in Hsinchu Prefecture. On March 18, FMD was also diagnosed on a third hog farm in the Prefecture of Taoyuan Prefecture. Unfounded comments have suggested that when FMD was diagnosed on the index farm, the disease was present on 25-30 other hog farms.

During March 1997 and the preceding several months, Taiwan had initiated a control and eradication program for hog cholera, which included the collection of at least 100,000 blood samples from 17 LDCCs around the island. In a recent preliminary study to determine any prior serological evidence of FMD, approximately 550 samples were tested in April and May of 1997 and all were negative for FMD.

Japan and South Korea set February 21, 1997, as the official date of FMD infection in Taiwan for import reasons. Comments and news articles suggest that FMD was present on the island as early as October 1996 or in the late summer of 1996. There is currently no scientific evidence to support this.

Swine Vesicular Disease (SVD)

SVD is well recognized in Taiwan. It is characterized by vesicular lesions on the snout, teats and feet to include the interdigital space. SVD is clinically indistinguishable from other vesicular diseases, especially FMD. Reports from Taiwan suggest that SVD can be easily recognized based on clinical lesions and that laboratory was not routinely employed to diagnose SVD. It is very possible, based on this reliable information, that early cases of FMD may well have been misdiagnosed as SVD. Serological evidence of SVD was detected at the WRL.

FMD moved very rapidly throughout Taiwan as the data indicates. For example, on March 20, there were 70 farms officially infected and 8 days later, on March 30, there were 1,175 farms infected. The disease appeared to infect an additional 200-300 farms per day. At the moment, no explanation can be given to account for the remarkable lightning-like speed at which this disease moved throughout the island.

FMD infection in swine in Taiwan was confined to swine despite observing cattle and other small ruminants in very close proximity to infected hogs. No infection was ever reported in other species, including zoological animals.

Contributing factors, therefore, to the introduction and very rapid spread of FMD in Taiwan have been associated with

(1) very high swine density (Taiwan has been reported to have the world's highest density of hog farms),

(2) garbage feeding,

(3) hog farms located in close proximity to slaughter houses,

(4) no vaccination program although the disease has been absent for almost 70 years,

(5) frequent social farms visits, and

(6) lack of complete laboratory confirmation of vesicular diseases.

Figures available to us as of June 17, 1997, indicated that 6,144 farms were affected, with 1,011,421 FMD-affected pigs, 184,231 dead and 3,850,536 million pigs killed. These figures may be revised in the future.

Depopulation/Disposal

Immediate steps to be take on an FMD-infected farm include the following:

1- stop shipping pigs completely and immediately
2- kill all infected pigs
3- spread lime around infected areas and hallways
4- spread alkali flakes in sewage around pens and sterilize pig pens with a strong acid or alkali solution
5- strictly control infected area
6- consider adding organic acid to the hog drinking water
7- vaccinate as soon as possible

The proper and rapid depopulation and disposal of millions of hogs can present grave economic, manpower, animal care and environmental challenges. The speed and efficiency of depopulation is directly related to the speed and efficiency of disposal. Very high water tables and other EPA environmental concerns in Taiwan complicated these procedures. Electrocution was the means of choice for depopulation. The disposal methods, initially and as can be appreciated, were dependent upon local and regional conditions to include EPA regulations. Once EPA officials formulated their burial, incineration, and rendering procedures, depopulation and disposal continued at a very regular pace. Because of the enormity of the task, there was an initial lack of supplies, equipment and manpower, which caused a significant delay in the prompt and timely depopulation and disposal of infected pigs.

The military made a significant contribution towards manpower needs in the area of depopulation and disposal. This was a serious problem because the longer an infected hog farm remained intact, the opportunity for spread of the FMD virus through the air, fomites, and animal and people traffic remained a significant threat. This must also be evaluated in view of the very high density of hog farms in Taiwan, where one can stand on a main or back road in Pingtung Prefecture ( a very high density Prefecture ) and identify along a several-mile stretch of road, numerous pig farms (10) located about 200-300 meters apart. Some military conscripts employed in this activity reported problems associated with psychological distress and anxiety, requiring medical leave. This is most understandable, bearing in mind the magnitude of the depopulation and disposal effort. When military recruits completed their tour of duty, they returned to the barracks for a 10-day quarantine period. A peak depopulation capacity of 100,000-200,000 hogs per day was achieved.

Indemnity

Much of the information available to us required translation and is not available to us at this writing. Farmers could apply to their LDCC or local agriculture office for indemnity payment for FMD-infected hogs. Initially, this indemnity price was very high and significantly more than a healthy pig, which caused some farmers to leave their uninfected farm and collect FMD-infected pigs to introduce onto their farm. This would enable them to collect the much higher indemnity price for the FMD-infected pigs. This was quickly rectified.

Disposal plans called for the burial in large municipal land fills of approximately 80 percent of the hogs. Fifteen percent were rendered and 5 percent were burned. Burning consisted of open burn and incineration. A capacity of approximately 200,000 pig carcasses per day was achieved. In water resource protection areas, only incineration or open burning was used. On April 11, eleven industrial, portable, kerosene incinerators arrived in Taiwan. The capacity of the incinerators was 2.5 and 40 metric ton (MT) per day. A day was 24 hours of operation. One site visited in Pingtung Prefecture contained several 2.5 MT and several 40 MT incinerators surrounded by telephone poles with flood lights for 24-hour-a-day operation. It would require several 24-hour days of operation to complete disposal of most of the farms I visited.

Vaccination

Animal disease emergency planning procedures in place in Taiwan for many years included the maintenance of an FMD vaccine bank. The emergency planning procedures also included the completion of several FMD test exercises over the past several years. At the outset of the epidemic, 40,000 doses of trivalent FMD vaccine (01, A24, Asia 1) were in the repository. This vaccine was immediately dispersed to the east side of the island and elsewhere to vaccinate all susceptible zoo animals and valuable hog breeding stock. Because of a preliminary FMD diagnosis of both 0 and Asia, an order for a bivalent vaccine was placed. The bivalent vaccine, 01 and Asia 1, of approximately 526,000 doses arrived on March 26 and 27. This vaccine was immediately dispersed free of charge for island-wide use.

In mid-March, officials purchased 3 million doses of a bivalent vaccine, 0 and Asia, to be used on the eastern side of the island and in valuable zoo animals and hog breeding farms. A significant portion of the vaccine was given free to small farmers. To prevent the spread of the disease by vaccination crews, it was permitted to allow trained, experienced farmers under veterinary supervision to administer the vaccine. An order for 13 million doses of a monovalent FMD vaccine, 0, was received on May 3, 1997, and distributed free of charge to farmers. Initially all FMD-infected hogs were destroyed but once enough vaccine became available, all pigs -- including those with the disease -- were vaccinated. Approximately 17-21 million doses of vaccine were administered. Additional material on vaccination is in the process of translation.

Cleaning and disinfection

This is one of the most critical and essential aspects of recovery after an FMD epidemic. Various protocols for these procedures were supplied by the local LDCCs, other government agencies, livestock journals and private industry. These procedures included the standard text book sterilization disinfectants used against the FMD virus. On-the-farm procedures included scrubbing and spraying with disinfectant twice a week. Large tonnages of New Formula Farm fluid, Farm Fluid S and Virkon S were airlifted to Taiwan as needed. The Japanese Pig Producers also donated disinfectant. Abundant material is available on this subject matter, but requires translation.

Restocking

A five-step procedure was initiated to restock hog farms infected with FMD. Step I, ii, indicates that farms applying for reintroduction must have no reported cases of FMD for a month within 6 kilometers of their surroundings; farms with only partial slaughter are required to have two doses of FMD vaccinations and no reported cases of FMD in two weeks. Other pertinent points include part III; number 3; applicants must hire in-house or contract a veterinarian to be in charge of health mange and disease reporting for the farm. Part III, number 4, re-introduced pigs must come from FMD-free farms, must weigh more than 25 kg and be effectively vaccinated against FMD and hog cholera. Part III, Environmental Protection Regulations, are quite specific and pertain mostly to waste water pollution control and waste disposal. Part 5 pertains to Violations and includes fines up to NT $150,000 for reintroducing pigs without permission. In addition, no compensation will be given if farms are reinfected with FMD or any other serious disease. Increased surveillance on polluting rivers and the environment are included.

The Agriculture Sector in Taiwan

In 1994, Taiwan's agricultural population represented approximately 19 percent of Taiwan's total population, and employment in the agricultural sector represented approximately 11 percent of total employment. Agriculture in 1994 accounted for 4 percent of Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). These figures represent sharp decreases from the 1960's, reflecting Taiwan's industrial development. In the mid-1960's, 47 percent of total employment in Taiwan was in the agricultural sector and agriculture represented 24 percent of GDP. Taiwan's major agricultural commodities are hogs, rice, poultry, shrimp, eels, squid, tuna, sugar, and bananas. In 1996, agricultural exports were worth approximately U.S. $5.48 billion and represented nearly 5 percent of Taiwan's total exports. Exports of live animals and poultry, frozen meat, and pork chops comprised 29 percent of the total agricultural exports (U.S. $1.61 billion). Japan has been Taiwan's principal market for agricultural exports (57 percent of total agricultural exports) followed by Hong Kong (20 percent of total) and the United States (7 percent).

The livestock sector in Taiwan has seen sharp growth in production in the last several decades. Meat output increased 10 fold from 1952 to the early 1990's. Livestock by the mid-1990's accounted for more than one-third of the total value of Taiwan's agricultural production. The two leading livestock sectors in Taiwan are the hog and poultry sectors. Taiwan is self-sufficient in poultry production and exceeds domestic needs in hog production. Taiwan has small cattle and dairy industries. More than 90 percent of the country's beef needs, however, are met through imports.

Taiwan's Swine Industry Prior to the Outbreak

Prior to the FMD outbreak, hog production was the leading agricultural product in Taiwan, worth U.S. $2.6 million in 1994, well above the value of the rice (U.S. $1.5 million) and poultry (U.S. $1.1 million) industries. More than 14 million swine were slaughtered in both 1995 and 1996, yielding more than 1 million metric tons of product each year. Taiwan was among the top 15 producers of pork and pork products worldwide in 1996. Approximately 270,000 metric tons of pork products were exported from Taiwan in 1995 and 1996, leading to Taiwan's status as the third largest exporter of pork products worldwide. Most of these exports were sent to Japan.

Hog production in Taiwan developed during the last three decades from a sideline farm activity to a major enterprise. In 1960, 94 percent of Taiwan's farm households, or 735,000 farms, raised hogs. An average of four hogs were raised per farm. Since 1960, the number of hog farms in Taiwan has dropped steadily, falling to 25,357 farms in November 1996. Accompanying this decrease has been a steady increase in farm size. In the early 1970's, nearly all hog farms had fewer than 200 head. By the late 1980's, 84 percent of hog farms had fewer than 200 head while 1 percent of hog farms had more than 1,000 head. By 1995, the number of hog farms with more than 1,00 head jumped to 9 percent of all hog farms, while those farms with fewer than 200 head dropped to 65 percent of the total. Hog density in Taiwan is extremely high. Eighty-three percent of the hog population is concentrated in the southwestern portion of the country and the hog density is approximately 6,500 hogs per square mile in this area. For comparison, in Sampson County, North Carolina, one of the United States' top swine-producing counties, the hog density is approximately 1,800 hogs per square mile.

Because of the high concentration of hogs in Taiwan, hog waste and environmental pollution have been a problem. Water quality regulations have been adopted in recent years and efforts have been made to implement on-farm manure treatment. By 1993, 86 percent of farms had implemented manure treatment regimens. A controversial plan prepared in 1991 called for the end of pork exports in order to reduce the size of the hog herd to better match environmental carrying capacity. This plan was not enacted.

To support the development of the livestock sector, the Taiwanese government operates an integrated disease prevention system including an inspection system for imported meat. In addition, the government oversees the production and use of veterinary medication. Routine monitoring of the livestock population is also carried out. In the 1990 Council of Agriculture Yearbook, Taiwan considered itself free of foot-and-mouth disease, rinderpest, and African swine fever. Prior to the FMD outbreak, hog cholera and pseudorabies were the major diseases of concern to hog producers and Taiwan had been working toward the eradication of hog cholera.

Pork is the preferred meat in Taiwan and accounts for approximately 60 percent of total meat consumption. Per capita consumption was 37 kg in 1991. Taiwanese consumers prefer fresh pork, so hogs for domestic consumption are typically slaughtered at night and sold in wet markets the following day. Prior to the outbreak, there were approximately 20 processing plants providing meat for the domestic market. Hogs move from the farm to slaughter via auction markets. In the auction markets, hogs are sold individually. The auctions run on a daily basis with a relatively small daily volume of sales. A small but growing percentage of hogs (22 percent in 1991) are raised under contract and go directly from the farm to the packing plant.

Exports have been important to the Taiwanese swine industry. Prior to the outbreak, nearly 40 percent of the hogs raised in Taiwan were raised for the export market and exports were worth U.S. $1.5 billion. This compares to exports of around 3 percent of total pork production in the United States (NASS). Meat products constitute the majority of exports and totaled nearly 270,000 MT in 1995 and 1996. Most of these exports were shipped to Japan where Taiwan captured 44 percent of the market in 1996. Exports of fresh, chilled pork had been increasing, reaching nearly 40 percent of total exports by the mid-1990's. There were approximately 20 processing plants in Taiwan of export quality, i.e., they met the standards and requirements set by Japan. In addition to meat products, several thousand live swine were exported annually prior to the outbreak.

Economic Impacts of the Outbreak

The most significant economic impacts of the FMD outbreak will be those related to the loss of export markets, particularly the fresh pork market in Japan, possibly for as many as 4 to 5 years. Because nearly 40 percent of the hog population was raised to meet export demand, significant structural impacts will take place to adjust production to a new market carrying capacity. It is too early to tell what these adjustments will look like. Indications are, however, that prices will be more unstable and that farms and processors will leave the market.

Within one week of the outbreak, hog prices had dropped 60 percent, falling from New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) $4500 per 100 kg (approximately U.S. $167) to NTD $1700 per 100 kg (approximately U.S. $63). These price decreases resulted from the immediate loss of export markets and an initial sharp drop in domestic consumption. With hog production costs estimated at NTD $4100 per 100 kg (approximately U.S. $152), even farms without FMD infection were impacted. Hog prices rebounded, regaining pre-outbreak levels by mid-May. To encourage pig prices to recover, the Taiwanese government provided low-interest loans and storage subsidies. A survey taken in Taiwan in July showed higher than expected hog numbers, which resulted in another drop in hog prices in late August/early September. At that time, prices fell again to NTD $3000 per 100 kg (approximately U.S. $111 per 100 kg).

The Taiwanese government conducted a survey in July showing a total of 21,891 swine farms nationwide -- down 14 percent from the 25,357 reported in November 1996. In addition, the survey indicated a total of 8,533,476 pigs on these farms -- down 20 percent from November 1996 (10,698,366 pigs). A standing herd of 7 million pigs is seen as sufficient to meet the needs of the domestic market, whereas numbers in excess of 7 million are likely to put downward pressure on prices. Production estimates for 1997 suggest an annual hog slaughter of 11.7 million head -- down 20 percent from the 1996 level of 14.6 million head. Taiwan's processing capacity has fallen. After the outbreak, seven of the meat packers exporting to Japan closed or downsized, including a plant run by Cargill. Early estimates released in March suggested as many as 50,000 persons becoming unemployed as a result of the outbreak. These same early estimates projected the impact on swine-related industries at U.S. $6.9 billion.

The Taiwanese government's goal is to have no additional FMD outbreaks from July 1997 through June 1998. Taiwan then hopes to reach FMD-free-with-immunization status by June 2000. From July 2000 to June 2001, Taiwan intends to eradicate FMD and reach FMD-free-without-immunization status. To meet these goals, regulations controlling repopulation efforts were issued with farmers being allowed to begin restocking in July. Under these regulations, farmers will need to apply for a permit in order to be allowed to restock. Conditions for the permit include ensuring that the farmer has disinfected his premises, that the farm has a contract with a veterinarian, and that the farm is equipped with waste-water and waste-disposal devices. Due to new regulations regarding watershed areas, permits may not be issued for farms located in fragile watershed districts Service Attache. Indications are that farmers began restocking herds prior to July, however, in response to good hog prices.

Taiwan's export market will be affected for many years. Japanese import requirements prohibit unprocessed pork being imported from an area infected with FMD unless the disease has been eradicated and vaccines have not been used for at least 2 years. These requirements may exclude Taiwan from the Japanese fresh pork market for at least 5 years. Taiwanese officials are negotiating with Japan regarding the possibility of Japan accepting processed pork such as hams, sausages, etc. It is unlikely that such exports would occur in 1997. The United States, Denmark, and Canada have replaced Taiwan in the Japanese market. Exports of pork from the United States to Japan are projected to total 185,000 metric tons in 1997 compared with 142,000 metric tons in 1996. Approximately 93,000 metric tons of U.S. exports are projected to be chilled pork -- up from 77,000 metric tons in 1996. Exports from Denmark are projected at 135,000 metric tons in 1997 -- up from 119,000 metric tons in 1996, while exports from Canada are projected to increase from 39,000 metric tons in 1996 to 55,000 metric tons in 1997. The U.S. share of the Japanese market is expected to grow from 22 percent to 40 percent by 1998.

Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the assistance of Dr. Wes Garnett and Mr. Ralph Iwamoto, International Services, APHIS, USDA. The assistance of Debra Henke, American Institute in Taiwan, is greatly appreciated.

Sources :

Taiwan Ag Info Center, web site
Foreign Agricultural Service Attache Reports, various
Taiwan Agricultural Yearbook 1996, Department of Agriculture and Forestry, Taiwan Provincial Government, 1996.
Wu Huang, Sophia, Environmental Challenges and Prospects for Taiwans Hog Industry in the 1990s, International Agriculture and Trade Reports Asia and Pacific Rim, USDA-ERS, October 1994.
North Carolina Department of Agriculture, web site.
Tsai, Reyfong and Williams, Gary W. Taiwans Livestock and Feedgrain Industries, TAMRC International Market Research Report No IM-2-93, October 1993.
Morgan, J. Brad, Packing/Processing Relationships, July 1995 (Report commissioned by the National Pork Producers Council)
Hayenga, Marv, Agricultural Economist, Iowa State University, Personal communication
Hurt, Chris and Plain, Ron, Comparative Live Hog Production and its Economic Consequences, Purdue University.
Amount Allocated to Fight FMD Deemed Not Enough, Taiwan Central News Agency, May 1997
Impact of FMD on Economy Assessed, Taiwan Central News Agency, March 1997
Halley, Millie, Agricultural Economist, USDA-ERS, Personal communication
Brennan, Terry, U.S. producers in hog heaven: Japanese open pork market, Journal of Commerce, September 19, 1997.
NASS, Agricultural Statistics, 1996.
Dunn, C.S, and Donaldson A.I. 1997 Veterinary Record, August 18, page 174.
Office International Des Epizooties, 1997, 10,(12),53; 10(13)53;10(14057.
King, J.M., Hsu, F.S., Hong, C.B., and Lee, R.C.T. 1976. An Atlas of General Pathology. Council for Agriculture, Planning and Development.
Pig Disease Information Center, University of Cambridge.Asia and Pacific Disease reports (OIE)dates- 3.22.97; 3.30.97; 3.29.97. and 8.6.97.
Antec International web site.



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Conclusion

Jim Walker in my opinion did not tell the whole story about Taiwan. Taiwan does not shape up to being a comparable FMD scenario on which to persuade the UK government not to vaccinate, and in my opinion the government were ignorant about the facts, as was the Scottish NFU led astray by their strongly opinionated leader.

Australia are adamant that they would use vaccination if FMD appeared to hint at running out of control - they have more to lose than the UK, but the principles are EXACTLY the same.

I rest my case!

Cheers,

Bryn Wayt


 
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